New Jobs vs. New Work Authorizations
The question is simple: when the economy creates a net new job, how many newly-authorized foreign workers are also entering the labor market seeking work? The answer, year after year, is: a very large number — often exceeding the total of net new jobs created.
This does not prove displacement. The relationship between visa issuances and employment outcomes is complex. Seasonal agricultural workers (H-2A), artists on short-term engagements (P-3), and corporate transferees (L-1) fill very different roles than domestic job seekers. But the raw math has almost never been presented to the public — and it should be.
Note: This report uses State Department fiscal year (October–September) for visa data and calendar year (January–December) for BLS job data. This creates a roughly three-month offset in the comparison.
Bars = net nonfarm payroll change (BLS CES, Dec-to-Dec, SA). Amber = job gains; red = net losses. Blue line = total work-authorized visas (Core + Spousal H4/L2/E3D + J-1), State Dept. fiscal year. Both series in thousands. The visa line runs flat and stable compared to the dramatic swings in job creation — the story of the chart. OPT excluded (different source; see table below).
"Even in 2008 and 2009 — when the economy destroyed a combined 8.3 million jobs — over 1.8 million work-authorized visas were still issued."
Core Work Visas = H-1B/B1, H-2A, H-2B, H-3, L-1, O-1/2, P-1/2/3, TN, E-1/2/3/3R, CW-1, R-1, Q-1, I (media). These holders are unambiguously work-authorized. Spousal = H-4 + L-2 + E-3D — work authorization for these categories changed significantly in 2015 and 2022; see footnotes. J-1 covers dozens of subcategories with varying work eligibility. OPT (not shown here) adds substantially more — see separate note below.
| Year | — Core Work-Authorized Visa Groups — | — Spousal — | J-1 | — Summary — | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY / CY | H-1B +H-1B1 | H-2A Ag | H-2B Other | All Other Core¹ | H-4² | L-2³ | E-3D | J-1⁴ | Core Total | All Incl. Spousal+J1 | Net New Jobs (CES) | Visas as % of Jobs⁵ |
¹ "All Other Core" = L-1, O-1, O-2, P-1, P-2, P-3, TN, E-1, E-2, E-3, E-3R, CW-1, R-1, Q-1, and I (media). Full breakdowns in methodology section.
² H-4 spouses of H-1B holders were NOT work-authorized until USCIS rule effective May 26, 2015. Pre-2015 figures shown for context only; those holders could not work legally.
³ L-2 spousal work authorization was automatic only after a federal court settlement formalized in January 2022. Pre-2022, holders required a separate EAD.
⁴ J-1 covers professors, researchers, au pairs, camp counselors, trainees, interns, and government visitors. Work eligibility varies by subcategory. Many categories include unpaid or stipend-only participants. Treat as a partial work-authorization figure.
⁵ "Visas as % of Jobs" = All (Core + Spousal + J-1) ÷ Net New Jobs × 100. Shown as N/A in years with net job losses (denominator is negative). Does not account for renewals, multi-year holders, or OPT.
The J-1 visa covers a remarkably broad range of participants — from Ivy League professors to summer camp counselors to au pairs. Some categories are fully work-authorized with wages; others are educational exchanges with stipends only. The State Department does not break out subcategories in Table XV(B). ICE SEVIS data provides subcategory detail separately.
The key fact: J-1 issuances have run between 108,000 (2020 COVID year) and 391,000 (2019) annually — making it one of the largest nonimmigrant work-related categories, and one of the least-discussed in policy debates.
| Category | CY2016 | CY2019 | CY2021 | CY2022 | CY2023 | CY2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STEM OPT (2-yr extension) | 41,782 | 72,116 | n/a | n/a | 122,101 | est. 135,000+ |
| Non-STEM OPT (12-month) | n/a | n/a | 115,651 | 171,635 | n/a | n/a |
| Total OPT Authorized (stock) | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 418,781 |
| Total Practical Training (OPT + STEM OPT + CPT) | est. 196,000 | est. 230,000 | n/a | n/a | 539,382 | n/a |
Sources: ICE SEVIS By The Numbers reports; CRS In Focus IF12631 (2025); Center for Immigration Studies analysis (2024). "Stock" counts individuals authorized at any point during the calendar year; some are counted in multiple years if their authorization spans years. "Practical Training" totals include Curricular Practical Training (CPT), which covers students working while still enrolled.
What This Analysis Shows — and Doesn't Show
What it shows: The volume of new work authorizations issued annually relative to net new job creation. The math is straightforward: if 2 million new jobs are created and 1.3 million work visas are issued, then at minimum those visa holders account for a meaningful fraction of available new employment opportunities — regardless of whether they fill new positions or replace departing workers.
What it doesn't show: Displacement. One visa ≠ one job taken from an American. Many visa holders fill roles with no qualified domestic applicants (H-2A agriculture). Many are seasonal or short-term (H-2B, P-3). Many are in transfers within multinational firms (L-1). And many new jobs are created precisely because of foreign talent. This analysis does not make a causal claim — it presents the scale question that must precede any honest policy conversation.
Data limitations: State Department data counts visa issuances, not actual U.S. labor market entries. A holder may enter months later, re-enter on the same visa, or not enter at all. Renewals and extensions of existing status (change of status, USCIS approvals) are not counted here. The USCIS I-129 petition dataset (approvals by employer) would show a different but related picture. Finally, 2019 visa methodology changed (from workload counts to application-level tracking); pre-2019 data is not fully comparable to 2020 onward.
Primary Sources
Visa data: U.S. Department of State, Report of the Visa Office — Table XVI(B)/XV(B): Nonimmigrant Visas Issued by Classification (Including Border Crossing Cards). Fiscal years 2007–2011 (FY11 Annual Report), 2011–2015 (FY15 Annual Report), 2016–2020 (FY20 Annual Report), 2020–2024 (FY24 Table XV(B)). travel.state.gov
Employment data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics (CES) — All Employees, Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS). Seasonally adjusted, December-to-December annual change. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS
OPT data: ICE SEVIS By The Numbers (annual reports); CRS In Focus IF12631, "Optional Practical Training (OPT) for Foreign Students" (2025); Center for Immigration Studies analysis (2024). ice.gov, congress.gov
Note on 2024 CES data: The BLS February 2026 benchmark revision reduced March 2025 nonfarm employment by 898,000 (−0.6%). The 2024 annual figure used here reflects post-revision estimates and should be treated as preliminary.