{"id":638,"date":"2026-07-29T09:34:25","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T14:34:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/guestworkervisas.com\/blog\/?p=638"},"modified":"2026-07-29T09:34:25","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T14:34:25","slug":"is-the-labor-shortage-number-a-big-business-number","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guestworkervisas.com\/blog\/is-the-labor-shortage-number-a-big-business-number\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the labor-shortage number a big-business number?"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>.viz-root { color-scheme: light; --surface-1: #fcfcfb; --page: #f9f9f7; --text-primary: #0b0b0b; --text-secondary: #52514e; --text-muted: #898781; --gridline: #e1e0d9; --baseline: #c3c2b7; --border: rgba(11,11,11,0.10); --series-1: #2a78d6; --series-2: #eb6834; --callout-bg: #f0efec; } @media (prefers-color-scheme: dark) { :root:where(:not([data-theme=\"light\"])) .viz-root { color-scheme: dark; --surface-1: #1a1a19; --page: #0d0d0d; --text-primary: #ffffff; --text-secondary: #c3c2b7; --text-muted: #898781; --gridline: #2c2c2a; --baseline: #383835; --border: rgba(255,255,255,0.10); --series-1: #3987e5; --series-2: #d95926; --callout-bg: #232322; } } :root[data-theme=\"dark\"] .viz-root { color-scheme: dark; --surface-1: #1a1a19; --page: #0d0d0d; --text-primary: #ffffff; --text-secondary: #c3c2b7; --text-muted: #898781; --gridline: #2c2c2a; --baseline: #383835; --border: rgba(255,255,255,0.10); --series-1: #3987e5; --series-2: #d95926; --callout-bg: #232322; } .viz-root { background: var(--page); color: var(--text-primary); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, \"Segoe UI\", sans-serif; padding: 24px; } .viz-root .wrap { max-width: 1040px; margin: 0 auto; } .viz-root h1 { font-size: 20px; margin: 0 0 4px; font-weight: 600; } .viz-root .subtitle { color: var(--text-secondary); font-size: 13px; margin: 0 0 20px; max-width: 72ch; line-height: 1.5; } .viz-root .stat-row { display: grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(3, 1fr); gap: 12px; margin-bottom: 20px; } .viz-root .stat-tile { background: var(--surface-1); border: 1px solid var(--border); border-radius: 10px; padding: 14px 16px; } .viz-root .stat-label { font-size: 12px; color: var(--text-secondary); margin-bottom: 6px; } .viz-root .stat-value { font-size: 22px; font-weight: 600; } .viz-root .stat-sub { font-size: 11px; color: var(--text-muted); margin-top: 4px; line-height: 1.4; } .viz-root .card { background: var(--surface-1); border: 1px solid var(--border); border-radius: 12px; padding: 18px 20px 14px; margin-bottom: 20px; } .viz-root .card-title { font-size: 14px; font-weight: 600; margin-bottom: 4px; } .viz-root .card-desc { font-size: 12px; color: var(--text-secondary); margin: 2px 0 10px; max-width: 72ch; line-height: 1.5; } .viz-root .chart-scroll { overflow: visible; } .viz-root svg { display: block; overflow: visible; max-width: 100%; height: auto; } .viz-root .gridline { stroke: var(--gridline); stroke-width: 1; } .viz-root .baseline { stroke: var(--baseline); stroke-width: 1; } .viz-root .axis-label { fill: var(--text-muted); font-size: 9px; } .viz-root .bar-label { fill: var(--text-muted); font-size: 10px; } .viz-root .value-label { fill: var(--text-primary); font-size: 11px; font-weight: 600; } .viz-root .callout { background: var(--callout-bg); border-radius: 8px; padding: 10px 14px; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.55; color: var(--text-secondary); margin-top: 10px; } .viz-root .callout b { color: var(--text-primary); } .viz-root footer.foot { font-size: 11px; color: var(--text-muted); text-align: center; margin-top: 24px; } @media (max-width: 720px) { .viz-root .stat-row { grid-template-columns: 1fr; } }<\/style>\n<div class=\"viz-root\">\n<div class=\"wrap\">\n<h1>Is the &#8220;labor shortage&#8221; number a big-business number?<\/h1>\n<p class=\"subtitle\">JOLTS job-openings data gets cited constantly to argue employers can&#8217;t find domestic workers &mdash; the same argument used to justify sending jobs overseas and importing labor on guest-worker visas. We tested whether the survey behind that number is actually built from large-firm responses. Sources: BLS JOLTS establishment-size research series (Dec 2000&ndash;May 2026) and DOL OFLC H-1B\/H-1B1\/E-3 LCA disclosure data (FY2026 Q1&ndash;Q2).<\/p>\n<div class=\"stat-row\">\n<div class=\"stat-tile\">\n<div class=\"stat-label\">Share of job openings from 5,000+ employee establishments<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-value\">3.2%<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-sub\">May 2026, Total Private. Barely moved from 2.0% in 2019 and 1.9% in 2015 &mdash; a stable feature of the data, not a recent shift.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-tile\">\n<div class=\"stat-label\">JOLTS survey response rate, 2020 &rarr; 2024<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-value\">58% &rarr; 33%<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-sub\">And per BLS\/Federal Reserve research, response is <em>lower<\/em> in the largest size classes &mdash; those estimates are the least reliable, not the most.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-tile\">\n<div class=\"stat-label\">&#8220;Certainty stratum&#8221; in the sample design<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-value\">100% sampling<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-sub\">Every establishment above a size threshold is included with certainty by design &mdash; it&#8217;s the small ones that get randomly subsampled.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"card\">\n<div class=\"card-title\">Where the nation&#8217;s job openings actually sit<\/div>\n<p class=\"card-desc\">JOLTS classifies every sampled unit into one of six employment-size classes and publishes job-openings levels for each. This is <b>establishment<\/b> size &mdash; a single physical location &mdash; not firm size. Read at face value, the headline &#8220;can&#8217;t find workers&#8221; number is overwhelmingly a small-and-mid-business number: locations under 250 employees account for ~77% of measured openings.<\/p>\n<div class=\"chart-scroll\">\n<svg width=\"720\" height=\"230\" viewBox=\"0 0 720 230\">\n<line x1=\"46\" x2=\"706\" y1=\"200\" y2=\"200\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line><text x=\"40\" y=\"203\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">0%<\/text>\n<line x1=\"46\" x2=\"706\" y1=\"156\" y2=\"156\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line><text x=\"40\" y=\"159\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">8%<\/text>\n<line x1=\"46\" x2=\"706\" y1=\"112\" y2=\"112\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line><text x=\"40\" y=\"115\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">16%<\/text>\n<line x1=\"46\" x2=\"706\" y1=\"68\" y2=\"68\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line><text x=\"40\" y=\"71\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">24%<\/text>\n<line x1=\"46\" x2=\"706\" y1=\"24\" y2=\"24\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line><text x=\"40\" y=\"27\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">32%<\/text>\n<line x1=\"46\" x2=\"706\" y1=\"200\" y2=\"200\" class=\"baseline\"><\/line>\n<rect x=\"66\" y=\"90.0\" width=\"70\" height=\"110.0\" rx=\"3\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\"><\/rect>\n<text x=\"101\" y=\"84.0\" class=\"value-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">20.0%<\/text>\n<text x=\"101\" y=\"214\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">1&ndash;9<\/text>\n<rect x=\"176\" y=\"32.8\" width=\"70\" height=\"167.2\" rx=\"3\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\"><\/rect>\n<text x=\"211\" y=\"26.8\" class=\"value-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">30.4%<\/text>\n<text x=\"211\" y=\"214\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">10&ndash;49<\/text>\n<rect x=\"286\" y=\"53.7\" width=\"70\" height=\"146.3\" rx=\"3\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\"><\/rect>\n<text x=\"321\" y=\"47.7\" class=\"value-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">26.6%<\/text>\n<text x=\"321\" y=\"214\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">50&ndash;249<\/text>\n<rect x=\"396\" y=\"132.35\" width=\"70\" height=\"67.65\" rx=\"3\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\"><\/rect>\n<text x=\"431\" y=\"126.35\" class=\"value-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">12.3%<\/text>\n<text x=\"431\" y=\"214\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">250&ndash;999<\/text>\n<rect x=\"506\" y=\"158.75\" width=\"70\" height=\"41.25\" rx=\"3\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\"><\/rect>\n<text x=\"541\" y=\"152.75\" class=\"value-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">7.5%<\/text>\n<text x=\"541\" y=\"214\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">1K&ndash;5K<\/text>\n<rect x=\"616\" y=\"182.4\" width=\"70\" height=\"17.6\" rx=\"3\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\"><\/rect>\n<text x=\"651\" y=\"176.4\" class=\"value-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">3.2%<\/text>\n<text x=\"651\" y=\"214\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">5K+<\/text>\n<\/svg>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"callout\"><b>Response rates cut the other way too:<\/b> BLS and Federal Reserve researchers have both flagged that the largest size classes have the lowest survey response, meaning the already-small 5,000+ slice is also the noisiest one in the published data.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"card\">\n<div class=\"card-title\">Establishment &ne; firm: why &#8220;large employer&#8221; doesn&#8217;t mean &#8220;large establishment&#8221;<\/div>\n<p class=\"card-desc\">A firm is one or many establishments under a common EIN. A retail or restaurant chain with 50,000 employees shows up in JOLTS as thousands of separate small locations &mdash; most falling into the &#8220;under 250&#8221; buckets above. A company that concentrates its U.S. workforce into a handful of huge campuses shows up as a few units in the certainty stratum instead. Using this project&#8217;s own H-1B\/LCA disclosure data, distinct worksite addresses per employer vary enormously &mdash; illustrating just how differently &#8220;large employer&#8221; maps onto establishment size class from one company to the next.<\/p>\n<div class=\"chart-scroll\">\n<svg width=\"760\" height=\"300\" viewBox=\"0 0 760 300\">\n<line x1=\"175\" x2=\"175\" y1=\"16\" y2=\"288\" class=\"baseline\"><\/line>\n<line x1=\"307.5\" x2=\"307.5\" y1=\"16\" y2=\"288\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line>\n<line x1=\"440.0\" x2=\"440.0\" y1=\"16\" y2=\"288\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line>\n<line x1=\"572.4\" x2=\"572.4\" y1=\"16\" y2=\"288\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line>\n<line x1=\"705.0\" x2=\"705.0\" y1=\"16\" y2=\"288\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line>\n<text x=\"175\" y=\"300\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">0<\/text>\n<text x=\"307.5\" y=\"300\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">450<\/text>\n<text x=\"440.0\" y=\"300\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">900<\/text>\n<text x=\"572.4\" y=\"300\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">1,350<\/text>\n<text x=\"705.0\" y=\"300\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">1,800 sites<\/text>\n<rect x=\"175\" y=\"22\" width=\"503.5\" height=\"22\" rx=\"3\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\"><\/rect>\n<text x=\"170\" y=\"37\" class=\"bar-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">Ernst &amp; Young<\/text>\n<text x=\"684.5\" y=\"37\" class=\"value-label\" text-anchor=\"start\">1,710<\/text>\n<rect x=\"175\" y=\"56\" width=\"146.0\" height=\"22\" rx=\"3\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\"><\/rect>\n<text x=\"170\" y=\"71\" class=\"bar-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">Infosys Limited<\/text>\n<text x=\"327.0\" y=\"71\" class=\"value-label\" text-anchor=\"start\">496<\/text>\n<rect x=\"175\" y=\"90\" width=\"83.3\" height=\"22\" rx=\"3\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\"><\/rect>\n<text x=\"170\" y=\"105\" class=\"bar-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">Apple<\/text>\n<text x=\"264.3\" y=\"105\" class=\"value-label\" text-anchor=\"start\">283<\/text>\n<rect x=\"175\" y=\"124\" width=\"80.7\" height=\"22\" rx=\"3\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\"><\/rect>\n<text x=\"170\" y=\"139\" class=\"bar-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">Oracle America<\/text>\n<text x=\"261.7\" y=\"139\" class=\"value-label\" text-anchor=\"start\">274<\/text>\n<rect x=\"175\" y=\"158\" width=\"60.6\" height=\"22\" rx=\"3\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\"><\/rect>\n<text x=\"170\" y=\"173\" class=\"bar-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">Amazon Web Services<\/text>\n<text x=\"241.6\" y=\"173\" class=\"value-label\" text-anchor=\"start\">206<\/text>\n<rect x=\"175\" y=\"192\" width=\"50.0\" height=\"22\" rx=\"3\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\"><\/rect>\n<text x=\"170\" y=\"207\" class=\"bar-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">Cisco Systems<\/text>\n<text x=\"231.0\" y=\"207\" class=\"value-label\" text-anchor=\"start\">170<\/text>\n<rect x=\"175\" y=\"226\" width=\"11.5\" height=\"22\" rx=\"3\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\"><\/rect>\n<text x=\"170\" y=\"241\" class=\"bar-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">LinkedIn<\/text>\n<text x=\"192.5\" y=\"241\" class=\"value-label\" text-anchor=\"start\">39<\/text>\n<rect x=\"175\" y=\"260\" width=\"8.5\" height=\"22\" rx=\"3\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\"><\/rect>\n<text x=\"170\" y=\"275\" class=\"bar-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">Qualcomm Technologies<\/text>\n<text x=\"189.5\" y=\"275\" class=\"value-label\" text-anchor=\"start\">29<\/text>\n<\/svg>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"card-desc\" style=\"margin-top:10px;\">Distinct worksite street addresses named across each employer&#8217;s FY2026 LCA filings. Not a headcount measure &mdash; DOL&#8217;s position-count fields turned out to be batch-filing ceilings (e.g. Qualcomm&#8217;s LCAs are routinely filed in round lots of 100), not confirmed hires, so we didn&#8217;t use them for anything requiring real magnitude.<\/p>\n<div class=\"callout\"><b>The gap nobody outside BLS can check:<\/b> JOLTS never publishes an industry &times; establishment-size cross-tabulation &mdash; not for tech, not for any sector. So the sharper version of the &#8220;big offshoring-heavy employers drive the shortage number&#8221; claim can&#8217;t actually be tested against public JOLTS data, by us or anyone else. That&#8217;s a real transparency limit in the dataset, not evidence either way.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<footer class=\"foot\">Data: BLS JOLTS Estimates by Establishment Size Class, Total Private, Dec 2000&ndash;May 2026 (seasonally adjusted where applicable) &middot; DOL OFLC H-1B\/H-1B1\/E-3 LCA disclosure data, FY2026 Q1&ndash;Q2 &middot; BLS Handbook of Methods; San Francisco Fed Economic Letter, Mar 2025, on JOLTS response rates.<\/footer>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Is the &#8220;labor shortage&#8221; number a big-business number? JOLTS job-openings data gets cited constantly to argue employers can&#8217;t find domestic workers &mdash; the same argument used to justify sending jobs overseas and importing labor on guest-worker visas. We tested whether the survey behind that number is actually built from large-firm responses. Sources: BLS JOLTS establishment-size &#8230; <a title=\"Is the labor-shortage number a big-business number?\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/guestworkervisas.com\/blog\/is-the-labor-shortage-number-a-big-business-number\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Is the labor-shortage number a big-business number?\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,24],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-638","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-h-1b","category-jolts"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.2 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Is the &quot;labor shortage&quot; number a big-business number? 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