{"id":653,"date":"2026-08-10T08:57:25","date_gmt":"2026-08-10T13:57:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/guestworkervisas.com\/blog\/?p=653"},"modified":"2026-08-10T08:57:25","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T13:57:25","slug":"where-would-u-s-employment-be-without-foreign-workers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/guestworkervisas.com\/blog\/where-would-u-s-employment-be-without-foreign-workers\/","title":{"rendered":"Where Would U.S. Employment Be Without Foreign Workers?"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>.viz-root { color-scheme: light; --surface-1: #fcfcfb; --page: #f9f9f7; --text-primary: #0b0b0b; --text-secondary: #52514e; --text-muted: #898781; --gridline: #e1e0d9; --baseline: #c3c2b7; --border: rgba(11,11,11,0.10); --series-1: #2a78d6; --series-2: #eb6834; --callout-bg: #f0efec; } @media (prefers-color-scheme: dark) { :root:where(:not([data-theme=\"light\"])) .viz-root { color-scheme: dark; --surface-1: #1a1a19; --page: #0d0d0d; --text-primary: #ffffff; --text-secondary: #c3c2b7; --text-muted: #898781; --gridline: #2c2c2a; --baseline: #383835; --border: rgba(255,255,255,0.10); --series-1: #3987e5; --series-2: #d95926; --callout-bg: #232322; } } :root[data-theme=\"dark\"] .viz-root { color-scheme: dark; --surface-1: #1a1a19; --page: #0d0d0d; --text-primary: #ffffff; --text-secondary: #c3c2b7; --text-muted: #898781; --gridline: #2c2c2a; --baseline: #383835; --border: rgba(255,255,255,0.10); --series-1: #3987e5; --series-2: #d95926; --callout-bg: #232322; } .viz-root { background: var(--page); color: var(--text-primary); font-family: system-ui, -apple-system, \"Segoe UI\", sans-serif; padding: 24px; } .viz-root .wrap { max-width: 1040px; margin: 0 auto; } .viz-root h1 { font-size: 20px; margin: 0 0 4px; font-weight: 600; } .viz-root .subtitle { color: var(--text-secondary); font-size: 13px; margin: 0 0 20px; max-width: 74ch; line-height: 1.5; } .viz-root .stat-row { display: grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(3, 1fr); gap: 12px; margin-bottom: 20px; } .viz-root .stat-tile { background: var(--surface-1); 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} .viz-root svg { display: block; overflow: visible; max-width: 100%; height: auto; } .viz-root .gridline { stroke: var(--gridline); stroke-width: 1; } .viz-root .baseline { stroke: var(--baseline); stroke-width: 1; } .viz-root .axis-label { fill: var(--text-muted); font-size: 9px; } .viz-root .annot-line { stroke: var(--text-muted); stroke-width: 1; stroke-dasharray: 3,3; } .viz-root .annot-label { fill: var(--text-muted); font-size: 9px; } .viz-root .end-label { font-size: 11px; font-weight: 600; } .viz-root .callout { background: var(--callout-bg); border-radius: 8px; padding: 10px 14px; font-size: 12px; line-height: 1.55; color: var(--text-secondary); margin-top: 10px; } .viz-root .callout b { color: var(--text-primary); } .viz-root footer.foot { font-size: 11px; color: var(--text-muted); text-align: center; margin-top: 24px; }<\/style>\n<div class=\"viz-root\">\n<div class=\"wrap\">\n<h1>Where would U.S. employment be without foreign workers?<\/h1>\n<p class=\"subtitle\">Actual U.S. nonfarm payrolls, 1939&ndash;present (FRED series PAYEMS, BLS CES establishment survey), compared against a counterfactual: starting from the real Dec 2006 payroll level &mdash; the last month before BLS began separately tracking native-born vs. foreign-born employment &mdash; and adding only the growth in native-born employment (BLS Table A-7, CPS household survey) each month since.<\/p>\n<div class=\"stat-row\">\n<div class=\"stat-tile\">\n<div class=\"stat-label\">Actual nonfarm payrolls, Jun 2026<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-value\">159.0M<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-sub\">BLS CES establishment survey (PAYEMS)<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-tile\">\n<div class=\"stat-label\">Counterfactual level, native-born growth only<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-value\">147.2M<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-sub\">Dec 2006 level + cumulative native-born employment gains since<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-tile\">\n<div class=\"stat-label\">Gap<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-value\">+11.8M<\/div>\n<div class=\"stat-sub\">8.0% above the counterfactual level<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"card\">\n<div class=\"card-title\">Actual vs. counterfactual employment level, 1939&ndash;2026<\/div>\n<p class=\"card-desc\">Both lines are identical through Dec 2006. After that point, the orange line stops following actual payroll growth and instead only adds however many more native-born workers were employed each month.<\/p>\n<div class=\"chart-scroll\"><svg width=\"900\" height=\"340\" viewBox=\"0 0 900 340\"><line x1=\"44\" x2=\"884\" y1=\"276.00\" y2=\"276.00\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line><text x=\"38\" y=\"279.00\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">0M<\/text><line x1=\"44\" x2=\"884\" y1=\"233.33\" y2=\"233.33\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line><text x=\"38\" y=\"236.33\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">30M<\/text><line x1=\"44\" x2=\"884\" y1=\"190.67\" y2=\"190.67\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line><text x=\"38\" y=\"193.67\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">60M<\/text><line x1=\"44\" x2=\"884\" y1=\"148.00\" y2=\"148.00\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line><text x=\"38\" y=\"151.00\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">90M<\/text><line x1=\"44\" x2=\"884\" y1=\"105.33\" y2=\"105.33\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line><text x=\"38\" y=\"108.33\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">120M<\/text><line x1=\"44\" x2=\"884\" y1=\"62.67\" y2=\"62.67\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line><text x=\"38\" y=\"65.67\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">150M<\/text><line x1=\"44\" x2=\"884\" y1=\"20.00\" y2=\"20.00\" class=\"gridline\"><\/line><text x=\"38\" y=\"23.00\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"end\">180M<\/text><line x1=\"44\" x2=\"884\" y1=\"276.00\" y2=\"276.00\" class=\"baseline\"><\/line><text x=\"53.66\" y=\"292\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">1940<\/text><text x=\"150.21\" y=\"292\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">1950<\/text><text x=\"246.76\" y=\"292\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">1960<\/text><text x=\"343.31\" y=\"292\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">1970<\/text><text x=\"439.86\" y=\"292\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">1980<\/text><text x=\"536.41\" y=\"292\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">1990<\/text><text x=\"632.97\" y=\"292\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">2000<\/text><text x=\"729.52\" y=\"292\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">2010<\/text><text x=\"826.07\" y=\"292\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">2020<\/text><text x=\"884.00\" y=\"292\" class=\"axis-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">2026<\/text><line x1=\"690.90\" x2=\"690.90\" y1=\"20\" y2=\"276\" class=\"annot-line\"><\/line><text x=\"690.90\" y=\"14\" class=\"annot-label\" text-anchor=\"middle\">Dec 2006 &mdash; Table A-7 begins<\/text><path d=\"M44.00 231.14 L53.66 227.40 L63.31 221.81 L72.97 216.39 L82.62 215.21 L92.28 216.47 L101.93 220.38 L111.59 214.31 L121.24 212.60 L130.90 211.95 L140.55 214.10 L150.21 209.35 L159.86 207.29 L169.52 204.65 L179.17 205.31 L188.83 205.84 L198.48 202.32 L208.14 200.72 L217.79 201.50 L227.45 201.92 L237.10 198.95 L246.76 199.57 L256.41 197.96 L266.07 196.32 L275.72 194.42 L285.38 191.49 L295.03 187.36 L304.69 183.27 L314.34 180.85 L324.00 177.51 L333.66 174.68 L343.31 175.32 L352.97 173.44 L362.62 168.95 L372.28 165.02 L381.93 165.56 L391.59 165.04 L401.24 161.59 L410.90 155.95 L420.55 149.89 L430.21 147.04 L439.86 146.66 L449.52 146.73 L459.17 149.75 L468.83 144.83 L478.48 139.31 L488.14 135.76 L497.79 133.05 L507.45 128.57 L517.10 123.97 L526.76 121.21 L536.41 120.74 L546.07 121.93 L555.72 120.26 L565.38 116.25 L575.03 110.77 L584.69 107.72 L594.34 103.71 L604.00 98.86 L613.66 94.53 L623.31 90.00 L632.97 87.25 L642.62 89.71 L652.28 90.45 L661.93 90.27 L671.59 87.37 L681.24 83.77 L690.90 80.80 L700.55 79.17 L710.21 84.22 L719.86 91.38 L729.52 89.93 L739.17 87.00 L748.83 83.89 L758.48 80.63 L768.14 76.37 L777.79 72.51 L787.45 69.20 L797.10 66.19 L806.76 62.94 L816.41 60.12 L826.07 73.27 L835.72 62.93 L845.38 56.49 L855.03 52.91 L864.69 50.84 L874.34 50.67 L884.00 49.89\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"var(--series-1)\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"><\/path><circle cx=\"884.00\" cy=\"49.89\" r=\"4\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\" stroke=\"var(--surface-1)\" stroke-width=\"2\"><\/circle><path d=\"M690.90 80.80 L700.55 78.52 L710.21 81.81 L719.86 88.28 L729.52 87.79 L739.17 86.33 L748.83 83.75 L758.48 82.63 L768.14 80.26 L777.79 77.45 L787.45 75.12 L797.10 72.85 L806.76 70.61 L816.41 67.49 L826.07 77.70 L835.72 72.09 L845.38 69.68 L855.03 68.79 L864.69 68.50 L874.34 65.76 L884.00 66.63\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"var(--series-2)\" stroke-width=\"2\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-linecap=\"round\"><\/path><circle cx=\"884.00\" cy=\"66.63\" r=\"4\" fill=\"var(--series-2)\" stroke=\"var(--surface-1)\" stroke-width=\"2\"><\/circle><text x=\"876.00\" y=\"39.89\" class=\"end-label\" fill=\"var(--series-1)\" text-anchor=\"end\">Actual<\/text><text x=\"876.00\" y=\"78.63\" class=\"end-label\" fill=\"var(--series-2)\" text-anchor=\"end\">Counterfactual<\/text><\/svg><\/div>\n<div class=\"legend\">\n<div class=\"legend-item\"><span class=\"legend-swatch\" style=\"background:var(--series-1)\"><\/span><span>Actual (BLS nonfarm payrolls)<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"legend-item\"><span class=\"legend-swatch\" style=\"background:var(--series-2)\"><\/span><span>Counterfactual (native-born growth only, since Dec 2006)<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"callout\"><b>How to read the counterfactual line:<\/b> PAYEMS counts jobs (someone working two jobs is counted twice); Table A-7 counts people (and also picks up agricultural and self-employed workers PAYEMS doesn&#8217;t). The counterfactual isn&#8217;t a precise reconstruction of what payrolls specifically would have been &mdash; it splices a jobs-count series onto a persons-count series at the one point where they meet, to show the shape of employment growth if hiring since 2006 had drawn only from the native-born labor force. Treat the ~11.8M gap as illustrative, not a precise headcount.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<footer class=\"foot\">Data: FRED series PAYEMS (BLS CES) &middot; BLS Table A-7 (Current Population Survey), Dec 2006&ndash;Jun 2026.<\/footer>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Where would U.S. employment be without foreign workers? Actual U.S. nonfarm payrolls, 1939&ndash;present (FRED series PAYEMS, BLS CES establishment survey), compared against a counterfactual: starting from the real Dec 2006 payroll level &mdash; the last month before BLS began separately tracking native-born vs. foreign-born employment &mdash; and adding only the growth in native-born employment (BLS &#8230; <a title=\"Where Would U.S. Employment Be Without Foreign Workers?\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/guestworkervisas.com\/blog\/where-would-u-s-employment-be-without-foreign-workers\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Where Would U.S. Employment Be Without Foreign Workers?\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,29,30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-h-1b","category-immigration","category-jobs"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.2 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Where would U.S. employment be without foreign workers? 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