Are job openings turning into real hiring? A tech-sector check

Testing whether elevated JOLTS job openings actually convert to hires in tech-heavy sectors, and how H-1B tech hiring volume compares to the broader trend. Seasonally adjusted BLS JOLTS data (Information & Professional/Business Services) and DOL H-1B LCA disclosure data (Computer & Mathematical occupations, SOC 15-xxxx), 2020-2026.

Info sector: openings vs hires gap (last 12mo avg)

+0.8 pts

Openings rate minus hires rate. Positive = postings outpacing hires.

Prof/Biz Services: same gap (last 12mo avg)

+0.9 pts

Pre-2020, this sector’s hires rate typically ran ABOVE openings.

H-1B tech volume vs JOLTS tech hires, latest

101 vs 92

Mar 2026 index values (Jan 2020 = 100 each)

Openings rate vs. hires rate, by sector

If openings run persistently above hires, postings aren’t converting into hires at the historical rate. Pre-2020, hires typically ran above openings in both sectors below — that relationship has flipped since.

Information

Professional & Business Services

Openings rate

Hires rate

H-1B tech hiring volume vs. JOLTS tech-sector hires (indexed, Jan 2020 = 100)

JOLTS tech-sector hires (indexed)

H-1B tech LCA volume (indexed)

H-1B volume = certified LCAs for Computer & Mathematical occupations, by decision month (DOL disclosure data). JOLTS = combined Hires level, Information + Professional/Business Services (BLS). Both indexed to their own Jan 2020 value so two different-unit series can share one axis.

Oct-Nov 2025 spike/dip: the Oct 2025 federal lapse in appropriations paused DOL case processing; decisions backlogged and were pushed through in November once government reopened. Read that pair of months as one disrupted period, not real volume swings.