Testing the “2.62 Jobs Per H-1B” Claim

An Analysis Using Actual Employment Data (1990-2024)

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The Claim

“Each H-1B visa holder creates 2.62 additional jobs for U.S. workers”

This statistic originates from a 2011 study by economist Madeline Zavodny, frequently cited by the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP). The study specifically analyzed foreign-born workers with advanced U.S. degrees in STEM fields.

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The Data

H-1B Visas Issued (FY1990-2024)

Total: 4,545,134 H-1B visas

Source: U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs

U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Period	Employment	Source
October 1990	~109.5 million	BLS/FRED
December 2024	~159.0 million	BLS/FRED
Net Growth	49.5 million jobs

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics

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Testing the Claim

If the 2.62 multiplier were universally accurate:

Jobs “created” by H-1B program:

• 4,545,134 H-1B visas × 2.62 jobs/visa = 11,908,251 jobs

This would represent:

• 11,908,251 / 49,500,000 = 24.1% of ALL job growth from 1990-2024

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The Verdict: HIGHLY IMPLAUSIBLE

The claim fails basic scrutiny for multiple reasons:

1. Attribution Problem

Attributing 24% of all U.S. job growth over 34 years to H-1B visas alone ignores:

• Population growth (251 million → 345 million Americans)
• GDP growth ($6 trillion → $29 trillion nominal)
• Technological change
• Business cycle dynamics
• Policy changes
• Consumer demand growth
• Natural business expansion
• Productivity improvements
• And hundreds of other economic factors

2. The H-1B Workers Themselves Are Counted

• H-1B visa holders are themselves employed and counted in nonfarm payroll
• So the 4.5 million H-1B visas represent 4.5 million jobs directly
• The “2.62” multiplier supposedly refers to additional jobs created
• This would mean 4.5M direct + 11.9M indirect = 16.4M jobs = 33% of all job growth
• This is economically implausible

3. Temporary Nature of H-1B Status

• H-1B is a temporary visa (3-6 years typically)
• Many H-1B holders:
  • Return to their home countries
  • Switch to other visa categories
  • Adjust to permanent resident status
• The 4.5 million visas ≠ 4.5 million concurrent workers
• Estimated concurrent H-1B population in 2019: ~583,000 (USCIS)
• This is far less than cumulative issuances

4. The Original Study Was Much More Narrow

The 2.62 multiplier was based on:

• Only foreign-born workers with advanced U.S. degrees
• Only STEM fields
• Only S&P 500 technology companies (according to critics)

But H-1B program reality:

• Many have only bachelor’s degrees
• Not all are in STEM
• Includes outsourcing companies
• Much broader than the study’s scope

5. Correlation ≠ Causation

Even if high-skilled immigration correlates with job growth:

• Both could be caused by economic expansion
• Growing companies hire more workers (including H-1Bs)
• Growing companies also expand overall employment
• The H-1B hiring might be a result not a cause

6. Alternative Calculation with Concurrent Workers

If we use concurrent H-1B population instead:

• ~583,000 H-1B workers in 2019 (USCIS estimate)
• 583,000 × 2.62 = 1,527,460 jobs created
• This is 3.1% of total job growth (1990-2024)
• Still very high for a single visa program
• But at least mathematically plausible

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What The Data Actually Shows

Job Growth Context (1990-2024)

Total growth: 49.5 million jobs

Major contributing factors:

1. Population growth: +94 million Americans (+37%)
2. Women’s labor force participation (peaked 1999)
3. Technology sector expansion (dot-com boom, internet, smartphones)
4. Healthcare sector growth (aging population, Affordable Care Act)
5. Service sector expansion
6. Educational attainment increases
7. Housing boom (1990s-2007)
8. Recovery from recessions (1991, 2001, 2008-09, 2020)
9. Trade expansion (NAFTA, China WTO accession)
10. Monetary and fiscal policy

H-1B program contribution: Likely positive, but modest and impossible to isolate

What We Can Say Confidently:

1. ✅ H-1B workers fill specialized roles
2. ✅ High-skilled immigration can drive innovation
3. ✅ Some H-1B workers found companies that create jobs
4. ✅ Technology sector growth (heavily H-1B dependent) created many jobs

What We Cannot Say:

1. ❌ Each H-1B visa “creates” 2.62 specific additional jobs
2. ❌ The effect is the same across all H-1B workers
3. ❌ The effect is stable over time
4. ❌ The effect is causal rather than correlational

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The Math Problem

Scenario 1: Universal 2.62 Multiplier

• 4.5M visas × 2.62 = 11.9M jobs
• Plus 4.5M H-1B workers themselves = 16.4M total
• 16.4M / 49.5M = 33% of all job growth
• Verdict: Implausible

Scenario 2: Concurrent Workers

• ~583K concurrent workers × 2.62 = 1.5M jobs
• Plus 583K H-1B workers = 2.1M total
• 2.1M / 49.5M = 4.2% of job growth
• Verdict: Possibly plausible, but unprovable

Scenario 3: Reality Check

• Job growth driven by hundreds of interacting factors
• H-1B is one small component
• Effect varies by:
  • Sector (tech vs. outsourcing)
  • Education level
  • Company type (startup vs. established)
  • Economic conditions
  • Geographic location

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Conclusion

The claim that H-1B visas created 2.62 jobs each is NOT supported by the aggregate employment data.

Why the claim persists:

1. Political advocacy: Used by pro-immigration groups
2. Simplified messaging: Easy sound bite
3. Cherry-picked research: Narrow study generalized broadly
4. Correlation confusion: Economic growth and H-1B hiring both reflect prosperity

What we actually know:

• High-skilled immigration can boost innovation and growth
• The effect size is debatable and context-dependent
• Attributing 24-33% of all U.S. job growth to H-1B visas is economically unrealistic
• The original study’s findings don’t generalize to the entire H-1B program
• Many other factors explain the 49.5 million jobs created since 1990

Bottom Line:

The 2.62 multiplier is:

• Oversimplified (from a narrow study)
• Overgeneralized (applied to all H-1B workers)
• Overstated (when applied to cumulative visas)
• Unverifiable (using macro employment data)

The reality is far more nuanced than any single multiplier can capture.

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Sources

1. U.S. Department of State – Nonimmigrant Visa Statistics (1990-2024)
2. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Current Employment Statistics (PAYEMS)
3. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) – Total Nonfarm Payroll
4. USCIS – H-1B Authorized to Work Population Estimate (2019)
5. Zavodny, M. (2011) “Immigration and American Jobs” – American Enterprise Institute
6. National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) – various reports
7. Center for Immigration Studies – critiques of multiplier claims

Overall Average: +1.52M jobs/year (1950-2025)

Key Findings:

📊 Central Tendencies:

• Mean: +1.52M jobs/year
• Median: +2.01M jobs/year
• The median is higher than the mean because extreme job losses (recessions) pull the average down

📈 Job Gains vs Losses:

• 62 years had job gains (81.6%)
• 14 years had job losses (18.4%)

🔵🔴 By Political Party:

• Democrat years: +2.31M jobs/year average (36 years)
• Republican years: +0.80M jobs/year average (40 years)

📅 By Decade:

• 1950s: +0.89M/year
• 1960s: +1.48M/year
• 1970s: +1.70M/year
• 1980s: +2.08M/year (strong growth)
• 1990s: +2.11M/year (Clinton boom)
• 2000s: +0.72M/year (dot-com bust + Great Recession)
• 2010s: +1.65M/year (recovery)
• 2020s: +1.50M/year (COVID volatility)

Extremes:

• Best: 2022 (+6.25M jobs) – Post-COVID recovery
• Worst: 2021 (-9.76M jobs) – COVID impact

The +1.52M average provides good context for the chart – any year above this line is above-average job creation, and the 1980s-1990s were particularly strong decades for employment growth!

Doesn’t include partial 2025 trump data

2025 = Jan 2024 to Jan 2025